Greece and The Euro:
Both have been in the news lately. You may not have noticed because you have been busting your a…. at work, or trying to deal with the end of the school year. Maybe you who have just graduated from nursing or grad school and are pounding the pavement looking for work.
Many have asked, “Why is the stock market and Wall Street so worried about Greece and the Euro?” “Why is my 401-k,( insert IRA,403-B, Roth….) dropping like a rock?”
Keep in mind, however that many of the stock market indexes were 60% higher this year than at the bottom of the market in March of 09. With that type rise, a drop of 10-15% was inevitable. My answer, to “why is it dropping now?” would be, if I knew, how and where, I would bet the farm, make a boatload of money and then quit my job.
The problem with my betting on the direction of the stock market:
- I wouldn’t bet the farm on the stock market.
- I don’t know which direction the market will go tomorrow, or next year.
- I wouldn’t quit my job-even if I made a killing- I like my job.
Now, back to Greece, the Euro and the stock market:
For those of you who don’t read the Wall Street Journal everyday, and watch “Squawk-Box” daily at 6am on CNBC, (like me) I will summarize what is going on…
- Greece-the country of Greece (gov’ment as we say in the South) has borrowed more money than it can pay back. This is a problem, because Greece is part of the Euro-zone-which went all-in a few years ago to start a new currency- called the Euro. Many of the banks that hold the Greek governments debts (bonds) are spread all over Europe-so if Greece doesn’t pay it’s debt-there is fear of massive bank failures in Europe.
- Part of Greece’s problem are uncontrolled governmental spending on social programs-(stories of workers retiring at age 40 with a full pension abound.)
- It seems the choice for the rest of Europe’s countries, such as Germany, are to back-stop or guarantee Greek debt. This makes the German worker-at age 60, subsidize the retired Greek worker who is 40. Obviously, that German worker, slaving away at his age, building a Mercedes on the factory floor, is pissed!. Why is he pissed-because his taxes are helping to pay for a Greek guy to lay on the beach, watching the Babes, and the sun set over the Aegean Sea.

Aegean Sunset! (photo by kouk cc)
- Another problem is that Spain, Portugal, and maybe Ireland and Italy, are right behind Greece as far as having huge government debts that may be beyond their ability to pay.
Hence, the SWOON in the local currency-The Euro. That means the locals can’t buy as much today with a 100 Euros, as they could yesterday-the currency value is dropping.
Why Should It Matter To You?
That being said-what does that mean to those of us in Georgia, (insert Penn, NY, Iowa….). Well our international companies like Intel, Microsoft, or Caterpillar, are not going to be able to sell as much in Europe.
This, because of the economic fears-just like in the US last year-sales fell off the cliff. The people in Europe are scared-and will be slowing their purchases. Therefore the earnings of these companies that sell internationally are expected to drop, which makes their stock worth less.
Many of the mega-US banks, are also highly interwoven/kissing cousins with the big European banks-so our banks may directly or indirectly be affected by bank failures in Europe-if they occur.
Many pundits feel bank failures in Europe are inevitable-so don’t be surprised to see much more concern in the news about these issues, before the next crisis somewhere else in the world occurs……
Fear: The fear of these bank failures in Europe, is spreading throughout the Wall Street crowd. They don’t know what bank failure in Europe would do to our economy-so their automatic response is to sell stocks when they get scared. When a few start selling, it becomes a contagion, spreading through the so-called “professional” investor community.
When Wall Street folks are selling, more than buying, the stock market index’s such as the S&P 500, drop-making your account balance lower on your statement.
So what should you do?
I am twiddling my thumbs,while Rome burns myself…. Well, really, I am leaving things alone. My opinion is the fears of European debt issues causing us to have another recession is quite small. Earnings of companies in the stock market have surprised (meaning the shares go up in value) on the upside for the past two quarters, and I think that will continue. This will make the stock market begin to go back up, the question is when???
Will that happen this summer? Probably not. The Wall Street guys like to go to the beach in the summer. S0 traditionally the stock market tends to go down or at least sideways during the summer.
So, what should you do, already?
Either leave your accounts alone. Or, if you can squeeze out another few bucks-increase your monthly deposit into your 401-K (403-b, investment accounts,etc..) Take advantage of the “sale” on Wall Street, I think your bravery will be rewarded in the future.
Disclaimer:
But remember, I am not a professional registered stock market broker, Certified Financial Planner, or banker.
I am old enough and have been investing long enough to have seen this type behavior multiple times. As many of the best investors say-the time to make the most money, is doing the opposite of what the “crowd” is doing. Buying now would probably qualify!!! But, as they say on TV-talk to your investment adviser!!!
The other “side-effect” of the scare on Wall Street is the movement into Treasury Bills, as the professionals sell stocks-they have to put the money somewhere. Treasury bills (or T-Bills) are guaranteed interest bearing investments backed by the US Treasury-(hence T-Bills). Now it would take a full post of it’s own to explain how T-Bill’s work. But the short course is: the more people that want to put money into T-Bills, the lower the interest rate!
And Mortgage rates are usually tied to T-Bill rates-so mortgage rates are down tremendously over the past couple of weeks-with good credit you can get a 15 year fixed rate mortgage for a little over 4%. UNBELIEVABLE! So if you are wanting to buy a house and are prepared-this is a good time. If you need to refinance, and you have a good credit score (>720)-it may be a good time to refinance!
Summary-Greece and the Euro:
Tomorrow, during your work break, instead of talking about Lost, or 24, you can discuss the “Greek debt problem” with your buddies, and wow them with the breadth and depth of your knowledge-or put them to sleep as I have you…..
Reader questions: What do you think of about the current news? Are you concerned about your investments? Are you putting new money in the stock market right now?
Let me know.
Dr Dean